The 5 hour barrier - can I break it?

When I first signed up for New York this year my main goal was to finish under 5 hours. I really don't care if I finish in 4:49:59 but I do really want to get in under 5.

As my training has progressed, I've slowly convinced myself that getting in under 5 isn't really a realistic goal. Since the Megatransect my miles have been somewhat scattered and my pace hasn't really been great. I haven't even felt particularly good on my runs and I've mentally backed off the idea of breaking 5 hours.

Today I spent a little bit of time with the online pace calculators trying to figure out what breaking 5 hours actually means. Finishing in 4:59:59 means maintaining a 11:26 pace for the race. Can I do that? Probably but I'm really not sure.

Then I went to McMillan running calculator and plugged in some of my recent times to see what it thinks about my chances. My most recent 1/2 marathon (virtual half) recorded by Nike+ was 2:21:26. I don't think I was really that fast, but if I was, McMillan projects a 4:58:17 marathon time.

My horrible feeling 18 mile run with the group took me 3:29 minutes and it was rough on me. I walked A LOT and felt lousy for at least half of it. That translates to 11:36 per mile and a 5:04 marathon.

My most recent real 1/2 marathon was the PDR where I ran 2:23:16 and felt pretty decent but had some odd chafing issues that shouldn't be a huge problem during the marathon. Plugging that time into McMillan yields a 5:02:09 marathon.

The bottom line is that I still don't think it's very likely that I'll finish New York under 5 hours. But now I do think it's possible for me to match or maybe even improve my time from last year (5:07) and if all goes perfectly and I really stick with my plan of remaining with the 5 hour pacer at all times until the very, very, very end, then maybe I can do it. Maybe.

Mostly I just want to enjoy myself but man, it would be really awesome to get under 5.